GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION: THE MAIN TRENDS IN THE SECOND DECADE OF THE XXI CENTURY

This article focuses on the analysis of trends to improve energy efficiency and meet the requirements of sustainable development. The aim of the research is to determine trends in the main characteristics of the energy market: price and quantity of demand. Consumption pattern of energy includes consumption of coal, crude oil and natural gas, petroleum products, electricity (such as renewable power generation, hydropower, nuclear power). Analysis and forecast of the prices were carried out only for oil of mark «Brent». Progress in access to energy and sustainable energy is analyzed by macroregions: North America, South America and the Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, CIS countries, the Middle East, the European region, and Africa. Method: forecast extrapolation based on the analysis of trends that determine the readiness of macroregions to abandon outdated and develop modern types of primary energy carriers; an analogy method for constructing a cyclical model of oil prices. Results. Four cycles of oil price dynamics in the first two decades of the XXI century are identified and characterized. Two variants of price levels for 2020–2021 are predicted. The main trends in primary energy consumption are described separately for each type and for each region of the world.