Scenarios of development of foreign trade activity of the Russian Federation under sanctions conditions

Relevance. Foreign trade activity is the most important factor of economic growth of the Russian Federation, but currently exports and imports are under restrictions from Western countries. This study will provide information on potential scenarios for development of Russian foreign trade activity using ARMA and ARIMA modelling in modern conditions. Aim. To analyze the foreign trade activity of the Russian Federation in the conditions of restrictive measures prohibiting access to international and financial markets; to develop various scenarios of development of Russian foreign trade activity in the conditions of sanctions restrictions. Methods. Methods of analysis, synthesis and comparison, as well as ARMA- and ARIMA-forecasting of time series. Results. Based on the analysis of foreign trade activity of the Russian Federation for 2022, it was revealed that trade flows and the structure of foreign economic activity have undergone significant changes, thanks to which Russia managed to minimize the consequences of the imposed sanctions restrictions. The constructed models made it possible to develop three types of export and import development scenarios – inertial, pessimistic and optimistic. But in 2025 there will be a decrease in exports by 3.5% to $610 billion. Analysis of these models showed that, within the framework of the inertial scenario, in 2023 and 2024 there will be a noticeable increase in exports by 3 and 2%, respectively. In 2025 there will be a decrease in exports by 3.5% to $610 billion. Within the framework of the inertial scenario, the following values were obtained for the import indicator: in 2023, growth will be 4%, in 2024, an increase in imports by 2% is possible, and in 2025, based on the obtained model, growth will stop.