External risks: risk of changes in oil and gas prices

Aim. To analyze the risk of changes in oil and gas prices. To achieve this goal, the author has assessed the level of this risk impact on the national economy, namely, he analyzed oil and gas revenue structure, oil and gas production and export, actual execution of federal budget revenues, etc. The author quantitated the consequences of actions taken by unfriendly foreign states and restrictions and embargoes introduced in 2022–2023. As a result of the analysis, besides the geopolitical pressure, the author identified the factors that affect prices of oil (higher production costs, deterioration in the physical and chemical characteristics of raw materials, incomplete taxation, decisions of OPEC and OPEC+) and gas (increase in costs of production and transportation, insufficient development of the domestic market).