Structural index of import substitution and its testing under the impact of shocks on the Russian economy

To date, there are a number of approaches to the quantitative assessment of import substitution, which, however, do not affect the structural nature of its initiation in the long term. The subject of modern research is the effectiveness of import substitution "at the moment", which complicates its regulation and forecasting the results in the context of non‐cyclical shock events of macroeconomic dynamics. Overcoming such a gap in the theory and methodology of import substitution analysis seems possible to the authors by focusing on the structural component of import substitution – production and industry, factor, technological. It is the structure of the economy and, accordingly, the processes mediating import substitution that is the "conductor" of external shocks in the macro‐ and mesoeconomic dynamics. Therefore, regulation of the release of competitive products for the domestic market should be carried out within the framework of the structural policy of the state. Aim. To develop a methodological approach to assessing import substitution in the context of increasing external shocks and interpreting the results based on changes in the structure of the economy. Methods. Constructive critical analysis of scientific works in the field of quantitative assessment of import substitution, generalization and synthesis of the author's idea of using the index method to identify the paths and forms of impact of external shocks on the structure of import substitution. Results. Consist in the proposal by the authors of the aggregate index of import substitution, which combines a number of private indices demonstrating the impact of external shocks on its structure – the initial index (output of import‐substituting products in economic sectors), the basic index (change in the efficiency of production factors), the index of import substitution stability to external shocks (from the standpoint of technology, reproduction of fixed capital and labor productivity). An approach to interpreting the results of the analysis of individual indices and the aggregated structural index of import substitution is also proposed. Conclusions. Results of the calculation of the structural index of import substitution and their interpretation allow us to speak about the greatest impact of external shocks on the efficiency of production factors, which occurs with a lag of 2–3 years and determines the long‐term prospects for displacing imports or replenishing losses from the departure of foreign firms from the Russian market, investment and technological restrictions. In turn, negative fluctuations in the efficiency of production factors in the Russian economy are reflected in the sectoral output of import‐substituting products with a lag of 1–2 years, which makes it possible to adjust the state structural policy taking into account external shocks.