Vol. 54 No. 1 (2026): Published March 30, 2025
DOI https://doi.org/10.18799/26584956/2026/1/2069
Expansion of corporate debt and its impact on the Russian government bond market
Relevance. Profound transformation of the structure of the Russian financial market in the context of geopolitical and macroeconomic instability. A sharp decline in the number of non-residents in the government bond market coincided with a significant increase in corporate borrowing, which fundamentally changed the model of debt financing for the economy. This highlights the issue of the redistribution of investment flows and the potential displacement of government securities from investors' portfolios. Changing the behavior of key market participants – banks, institutional investors and corporations – in the search for a balance between profitability and risks requires understanding new patterns of functioning of the debt market. Against the background of tightening monetary policy and the growing debt burden of the private sector, understanding the competitive interactions between different segments of the debt market is becoming critically important to ensure financial stability. Aim. To identify the nature and intensity of competitive interaction between the corporate bond and government securities markets. Methods. General scientific methods of cognition, including theoretical, empirical, comparative, predictive and graphical. Objectives: empirical testing of the «displacement effect» hypothesis for Federal loan bond by corporate bonds, analysis of factors of multidirectional dynamics of debt segments, study of structural shifts in the investor base, assessment of adaptation mechanisms, and identification of systemic risks of the new market configuration. Results. The opinion about the classic «displacement effect» was adjusted, that is, the growth of corporate bonds did not occur due to a reduction in investments in Federal loan bonds. The authors identified the following factors of the Federal loan bonds market development: concentration in the banking sector, reduced liquidity, as well as the mass departure of non-residents. The authors identified the following factors of the of the corporate bond market development: reduction in the share of banks, strengthening the role of the state, reorientation to domestic financing due to sanctions. Conclusions. The structure of the Russian debt market underwent qualitative changes that go beyond classical economic theories. The growth of corporate borrowing reflects functional shifts in the economy, rather than being a consequence of competition with government securities. The new market configuration generates systemic risks, including the concentration of risks in the banking system, a decrease in the liquidity of government bonds and an increase in mutual corporate debt. In these conditions, the need to diversify the investor base and develop financing mechanisms for small businesses and non-resource industries is becoming urgent. The organization of financial stability monitoring, adapted to the specifics of the new debt market model, becomes a priority. This requires the deve-lopment of specialized risk assessment tools and regulatory measures.
For citation: Sinichenko O.A., Maksimenko T.S. Expansion of corporate debt and its impact on the Russian government bond market. Journal of Wellbeing Technologies, 2026, vol. 54, no. 1, pp. 123–140. https://doi.org/10.18799/26584956/2026/1/2069
Keywords:
corporate bonds, Federal loan bonds, debt market, portfolio investments, monetary policy, sanctions
References:
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