Vol. 54 No. 1 (2026): Published March 30, 2025
DOI https://doi.org/10.18799/26584956/2026/1/2078
Technological leaders and laggards: growth dynamics and resilience under external shocks
The article examines the characteristics of technological leadership and resilience of Russian leading enterprises under two consecutive external shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic and the sanction pressure of 2022. Aim. To identify the patterns of change in the resilience and growth dynamics of leading and lagging firms across different sectors of the Russian economy. Methods. Methodological framework is based on the Data Envelopment Analysis approach, which makes it possible to assess the relative efficiency of enterprises at the industry level. The Data Envelopment Analysis model is complemented by an analysis of revenue dynamics and the stability of the composition of leaders for the 2019–2023, which allows tracing the evolution of technological leadership over time and across different phases of the shocks. Results. Technological leadership does not constitute a stable advantage in times of crisis. In most capital-intensive sectors (mechanical engineering, chemical industry, transport), technological leaders demonstrated weaker growth performance than lagging firms, while in growing sectors (IT and pharmaceuticals), leaders achieved higher revenue growth compared to outsiders. The consecutive impact of the pandemic and sanctions intensified turnover among leaders: the share of stable firms retaining leadership positions throughout the period ranged from 25 to 50%, with larger leaders generally proving more resilient. The analysis revealed different natures of the two shocks and distinct adaptation phases. Industries adjusted relatively well to the COVID-19 shock, with 7 out of 10 sectors showing strong revenue growth in 2019–2021. In contrast, the 2022 sanctions shock proved deeper, and only the IT sector adapted successfully, while most others exhibited zero or negative revenue dynamics. The theoretical contribution of the study lies in refining the concept of technological leadership as a dynamic and context-dependent phenomenon affected by the type of shock and industry structure. The practical significance is in developing approaches to industrial and innovation policy aimed at enhancing adaptability and technological resilience not only among leading firms but also among promising catching-up enterprises during crisis periods.
For citation: Spitsin V.V., Gasanov M.A., Spitsina L.Yu., Leonova V.A., Bragin A.D., Spitsina D.V. Technological leaders and laggards: growth dynamics and resilience under external shocks. Journal of Wellbeing Technologies, 2026, vol. 54, no. 1, pp. 204–223. https://doi.org/10.18799/26584956/2026/1/2078
Keywords:
technological leadership, firm resilience, external shocks, sanctions, COVID-19 pandemic, efficiency, DEA analysis, digital maturity, industry differences, Russian economy
References:
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