Vol. 54 No. 2 (2026): Published June 30, 2025
DOI https://doi.org/10.18799/26584956/2026/2/2092
Methodology for diagnosing risks to the economic security of the pharmaceutical industry
Relevance. In an environment where the goals of import substitution and technological sovereignty of the pharmaceutical industry are identified as priorities, the lack of valid tools for comparative benchmarking with relevant foreign models leads to strategic decision-making in an information vacuum. The key problem is not the lack of data, but the lack of a methodology that allows us to correctly compare the structural risks of a developed and emerging economy. Without such a comparison, it is impossible to determine whether the observed growth in domestic production is a sign of real sustainability or whether it masks an increase in systemic distortions and the preservation of a technological gap. Thus, the development of a methodology that allows for meaningful cross-national benchmarking and, based on it, to identify a unique vulnerability profile for Russia, is of critical importance for the formation of an adequate and preventive sectoral national security policy. Aim. To develop and test a diagnostic methodology for identifying the types of structural risks to the economic security of the pharmaceutical industry based on a comparative cross-country analysis. Methods. Comparative analysis of national pharmaceutical industries, regression analysis to identify key dependencies, methodology synthesizing the SCP paradigm, the "path dependence" concept and the portfolio theory of G. Markowitz, calculation of a system of private risk indices and an integral indicator of structural vulnerability based on the Euclidean norm. Results. The testing of the methodology on representative cases from Russia and Germany confirmed the hypothesis of a qualitatively different nature of the risks to the economic security of their pharmaceutical industries. It has been established that the integral indicator of structural vulnerability for Russia reflects a trap model of structural underdevelopment with a mutual increase in the risks of import dependence, technological backwardness and "generic" bias. For Germany, the result indicates a model of managed dependence on government financing of compulsory me-dical insurance with risks of excessive specialization. The technique proved its discriminant validity, providing regulators with a tool not only for diagnosis, but also for developing targeted strategies.
For citation: Stepchenkova O.S. Methodology for diagnosing risks of economic security in the Pharmaceutical Industry. Journal of Wellbeing Technologies, 2026, vol. 54, no. 3, pp. 14–30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18799/26584956/2026/2/2092
Keywords:
economic security, pharmaceutical industry, risk diagnostics, integral indicator of structural vulnerability, comparative analysis, structural imbalances, portfolio theory, typology of industries, import dependence, economic security risks
References:
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