Vol. 54 No. 3 (2026): Published on September 30, 2026.
DOI https://doi.org/10.18799/26584956/2026/3/2098
Polynomial models of natural gas price trends in the global energy market
This scientific study is relevant because it examines global energy market conditions, which impact the socioeconomic sphere in our country. The key indicator under study is the global price of natural gas, which is the price of a futures contract for the Henry Hub benchmark natural gas grade, traded on the NYMEX stock exchange. This indicator serves as the basis for economic forecasts and investment strategies. Aim. To analyze and forecast world prices for natural gas, taking into account their volatility in the long term and within economic cycles, based on polynomial trend models. Methods. Analysis, synthesis, monographic, ADF test, KPSS test, centered moving average, economic and mathematical modeling based on polynomial trend models, forecasting, tabular, graphical. Results. The global natural gas market situation is constantly changing under the influence of a large number of factors, which increases the volatility of natural fuel prices; currently, the situation on the global blue fuel market is developing in favor of expanding demand, contracting supply, and rising costs and prices. The author has developed the methodological algorithm for analyzing and forecasting global natural gas prices, taking into account and modeling the variability of the given indicator in the long-term period and within economic cycles, based on polynomial trend models. Statistically significant and the highest quality economic and mathematical models of polynomial trends shown that global natural gas prices in the long-term period have twice successively gone through large stages of growth and decline, and within economic cycles two or three times successively increased and decreased within a narrower amplitude of fluctuations. Long-term and cyclical forecasts of global natural gas prices demonstrated that in the short term, the studied indicator should move from the decline stage to the growth phase. Conclusions. Economic and mathematical modeling based on polynomial trends can be used to analyze and forecast global natural gas prices because it allows for the constant variability of this indicator to be taken into account; forecasts indicate an imminent increase in prices for natural gas in the global energy market.
For citation: Tenkovskaya L.I. Polynomial models of natural gas price trends in the global energy market. Journal of Wellbeing Technologies, 2026, vol. 54, no. 3, pp. 13–24. https://doi.org/10.18799/26584956/2026/3/2098
Keywords:
natural gas futures, global energy market, economic and mathematical modeling, polynomial trends, forecasting
References:
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