Vol. 54 No. 3 (2026): Published on September 30, 2026.
DOI https://doi.org/10.18799/26584956/2026/3/2177
Migration of human capital and regional labour market resilience: a structural and spatial analysis
Relevance. Regional labour market resilience depends on the nature of migration flows, which are differentiated by direction and skill structure. Against the backdrop of reoriented migration processes in Russia in 2022–2025, a comprehensive analysis of the impact of intraregional, interregional, and international migration on local labour markets becomes highly relevant. Aim. To identify and quantify the differential effects of these migration flows on wages, unemployment, and sectoral employment structure at the subregional level. Methods. Using balanced panel data for 20 municipalities of the Tomsk region over 2020–2025, spatial econometric models (Spatial Durbin Model) were employed to capture spatial interdependence, along with shift-share analysis to detect sectoral effects. The theoretical framework draws on Borjas’ selective migration model, Piore’s segmented labour market theory, and brain drain concepts. Results. International migration (predominantly low-skilled) significantly reduces the unemployment rate (β = –0.042, ρ < 0.01), filling vacancies in construction and agriculture without exerting significant downward pressure on wages. Interregional outflow of skilled workers creates upward pressure on wages in high-tech sectors (β = 0.128, ρ < 0.01), exacerbating structural shortages. Intraregional migration reinforces the spatial concentration of human capital in the agglomeration, producing negative spatial spillovers (spatial lag coefficient –0.112, ρ < 0.1). Conclusions. The findings justify a differentiated migration policy: for agglomerations – retaining skilled youth, for peripheral areas – integrating international migrants and developing infrastructure, complemented by organized recruitment of specialists from CIS countries for priority sectors. The results can be used in the development of regional employment and spatial development programmes.
For citation: Filimonov A.E. Migration of human capital and regional labour market resilience: a structural and spatial analysis. Journal of Wellbeing Technologies, 2026, vol. 54, no. 3, pp. 160–168.
Keywords:
migration, human capital, labour market resilience, spatial econometrics, selective migration, brain drain
References:
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